44107TAV8 Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 44107TAV8 | 98.10 1.17 1.18% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of HOST HOTELS RESORTS on the next trading day is expected to be 97.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.23. 44107TAV8 Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 44107TAV8 stock prices and determine the direction of HOST HOTELS RESORTS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 44107TAV8's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
44107TAV8 |
44107TAV8 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of HOST HOTELS RESORTS on the next trading day is expected to be 97.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 44107TAV8 Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 44107TAV8's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
44107TAV8 Bond Forecast Pattern
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44107TAV8 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 44107TAV8's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 44107TAV8's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 96.79 and 97.30, respectively. We have considered 44107TAV8's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 44107TAV8 bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 44107TAV8 bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1898 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1489 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.234 |