Union Chemicals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Union Chemicals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Union Chemicals Lanka value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Union Chemicals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Union Chemicals Lanka on the next trading day is expected to be 702.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.16, mean absolute percentage error of 220.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 619.96.

Union Chemicals Stock Forecast Pattern

Union Chemicals Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Union Chemicals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Union Chemicals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Union Chemicals Lanka. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Union Chemicals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Union Chemicals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Chemicals Lanka. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 694.69 696.25 697.81 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 593.41 594.97 765.88 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Union Chemicals

For every potential investor in Union, whether a beginner or expert, Union Chemicals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Union Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Union. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Union Chemicals' price trends.

Union Chemicals Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Union Chemicals Lanka Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Union Chemicals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Union Chemicals' current price.

Union Chemicals Market Strength Events

Union Chemicals Risk Indicators

Other Information on Investing in Union Stock