Ternium SA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TXR Stock | ARS 8,600 30.00 0.35% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ternium SA DRC on the next trading day is expected to be 8,759 with a mean absolute deviation of 161.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10,020. Ternium Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ternium SA stock prices and determine the direction of Ternium SA DRC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ternium SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Ternium |
Ternium SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ternium SA DRC on the next trading day is expected to be 8,759 with a mean absolute deviation of 161.61, mean absolute percentage error of 45,516, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10,020.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ternium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ternium SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ternium SA Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ternium SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ternium SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ternium SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8,757 and 8,761, respectively. We have considered Ternium SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ternium SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ternium SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 130.6742 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 161.6054 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10019.5322 |
Predictive Modules for Ternium SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ternium SA DRC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Ternium SA
For every potential investor in Ternium, whether a beginner or expert, Ternium SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ternium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ternium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ternium SA's price trends.Ternium SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ternium SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ternium SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ternium SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ternium SA DRC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ternium SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ternium SA's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Ternium SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ternium SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ternium SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ternium SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ternium SA DRC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ternium SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ternium SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ternium SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ternium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.7 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ternium Stock
Ternium SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ternium Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ternium with respect to the benefits of owning Ternium SA security.