SERENDIB HOTELS Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SHOTX0000 | LKR 12.50 0.10 0.79% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SERENDIB HOTELS PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 12.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.43. SERENDIB Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SERENDIB HOTELS stock prices and determine the direction of SERENDIB HOTELS PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SERENDIB HOTELS's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
SERENDIB |
SERENDIB HOTELS Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SERENDIB HOTELS PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 12.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SERENDIB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SERENDIB HOTELS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SERENDIB HOTELS Stock Forecast Pattern
SERENDIB HOTELS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SERENDIB HOTELS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SERENDIB HOTELS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.49 and 15.79, respectively. We have considered SERENDIB HOTELS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SERENDIB HOTELS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SERENDIB HOTELS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0385 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2446 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.4315 |
Predictive Modules for SERENDIB HOTELS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SERENDIB HOTELS PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SERENDIB HOTELS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for SERENDIB HOTELS
For every potential investor in SERENDIB, whether a beginner or expert, SERENDIB HOTELS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SERENDIB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SERENDIB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SERENDIB HOTELS's price trends.SERENDIB HOTELS Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SERENDIB HOTELS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SERENDIB HOTELS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SERENDIB HOTELS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SERENDIB HOTELS PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SERENDIB HOTELS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SERENDIB HOTELS's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SERENDIB HOTELS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SERENDIB HOTELS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SERENDIB HOTELS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SERENDIB HOTELS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SERENDIB HOTELS PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SERENDIB HOTELS Risk Indicators
The analysis of SERENDIB HOTELS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SERENDIB HOTELS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting serendib stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.07 | |||
| Variance | 9.44 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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SERENDIB HOTELS financial ratios help investors to determine whether SERENDIB Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SERENDIB with respect to the benefits of owning SERENDIB HOTELS security.