Stifel Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SF Stock | USD 116.28 0.40 0.34% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stifel Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 113.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 99.19. Stifel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Stifel Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Stifel |
Stifel Financial Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Stifel Financial's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-03-31 | Previous Quarter 2.7 B | Current Value 1.9 B | Quarterly Volatility 743 M |
Stifel Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stifel Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 113.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.63, mean absolute percentage error of 5.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 99.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stifel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stifel Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stifel Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Stifel Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Stifel Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stifel Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 111.70 and 115.90, respectively. We have considered Stifel Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stifel Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stifel Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7758 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.626 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 99.185 |
Predictive Modules for Stifel Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stifel Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Stifel Financial
For every potential investor in Stifel, whether a beginner or expert, Stifel Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stifel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stifel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stifel Financial's price trends.Stifel Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stifel Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stifel Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stifel Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Stifel Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Stifel Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Stifel Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Stifel Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stifel Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stifel Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stifel Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Stifel Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Stifel Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Stifel Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stifel Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stifel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6563 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4307 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stifel Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Stifel Stock please use our How to Invest in Stifel Financial guide.You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Investment Banking & Brokerage space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Stifel Financial. If investors know Stifel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Stifel Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.577 | Dividend Share 1.62 | Earnings Share 5.53 | Revenue Per Share 45.507 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.178 |
The market value of Stifel Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Stifel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Stifel Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Stifel Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Stifel Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Stifel Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Stifel Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Stifel Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Stifel Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.