1919 Financial Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

SBFAX Fund  USD 34.39  0.05  0.15%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of 1919 Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 34.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.08. 1919 Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for 1919 Financial Services is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

1919 Financial 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of 1919 Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 34.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.08.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 1919 Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 1919 Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

1919 Financial Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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1919 Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting 1919 Financial's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 1919 Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.15 and 35.56, respectively. We have considered 1919 Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
34.39
34.35
Expected Value
35.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 1919 Financial mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 1919 Financial mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.4764
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2166
MADMean absolute deviation0.3698
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0116
SAESum of the absolute errors21.08
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of 1919 Financial. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for 1919 Financial Services and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for 1919 Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1919 Financial Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
33.1934.3935.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.8932.0937.83
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
30.4932.8935.29
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 1919 Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 1919 Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 1919 Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in 1919 Financial Services.

Other Forecasting Options for 1919 Financial

For every potential investor in 1919, whether a beginner or expert, 1919 Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 1919 Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 1919. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 1919 Financial's price trends.

1919 Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 1919 Financial mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 1919 Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 1919 Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

1919 Financial Services Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 1919 Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 1919 Financial's current price.

1919 Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 1919 Financial mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 1919 Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 1919 Financial mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify 1919 Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

1919 Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of 1919 Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 1919 Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 1919 mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in 1919 Mutual Fund

1919 Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether 1919 Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 1919 with respect to the benefits of owning 1919 Financial security.
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