REAL INVESTOR Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

RINV11 Fund   98.50  1.55  1.60%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of REAL INVESTOR FUNDO on the next trading day is expected to be 97.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.68. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast REAL INVESTOR's fund prices and determine the direction of REAL INVESTOR FUNDO's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for REAL INVESTOR - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When REAL INVESTOR prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in REAL INVESTOR price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of REAL INVESTOR FUNDO.

REAL INVESTOR Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of REAL INVESTOR FUNDO on the next trading day is expected to be 97.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict REAL Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that REAL INVESTOR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

REAL INVESTOR Fund Forecast Pattern

REAL INVESTOR Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting REAL INVESTOR's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. REAL INVESTOR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 96.76 and 98.41, respectively. We have considered REAL INVESTOR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
98.50
97.59
Expected Value
98.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of REAL INVESTOR fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent REAL INVESTOR fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1054
MADMean absolute deviation0.5446
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0054
SAESum of the absolute errors32.6772
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past REAL INVESTOR observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older REAL INVESTOR FUNDO observations.

Predictive Modules for REAL INVESTOR

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as REAL INVESTOR FUNDO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for REAL INVESTOR

For every potential investor in REAL, whether a beginner or expert, REAL INVESTOR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. REAL Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in REAL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying REAL INVESTOR's price trends.

REAL INVESTOR Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with REAL INVESTOR fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of REAL INVESTOR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing REAL INVESTOR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

REAL INVESTOR FUNDO Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of REAL INVESTOR's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of REAL INVESTOR's current price.

REAL INVESTOR Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how REAL INVESTOR fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading REAL INVESTOR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying REAL INVESTOR fund market strength indicators, traders can identify REAL INVESTOR FUNDO entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

REAL INVESTOR Risk Indicators

The analysis of REAL INVESTOR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in REAL INVESTOR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting real fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
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