Rafael Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

RFL Stock  USD 1.86  0.05  2.62%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Rafael Holdings Class on the next trading day is expected to be 1.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.63. Rafael Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Rafael Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Rafael Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Rafael Holdings fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Rafael Holdings' Payables Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 0.32 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 0.01. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 18.3 M. The value of Net Loss is expected to slide to about (1.8 M).
A two period moving average forecast for Rafael Holdings is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Rafael Holdings Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Rafael Holdings Class on the next trading day is expected to be 1.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rafael Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rafael Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Rafael Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

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Rafael Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Rafael Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rafael Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.32, respectively. We have considered Rafael Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.86
1.86
Expected Value
5.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rafael Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rafael Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.1192
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0062
MADMean absolute deviation0.0606
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0312
SAESum of the absolute errors3.635
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Rafael Holdings Class price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Rafael Holdings. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Rafael Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rafael Holdings Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.091.855.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.615.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Rafael Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Rafael Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Rafael Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Rafael Holdings Class.

Other Forecasting Options for Rafael Holdings

For every potential investor in Rafael, whether a beginner or expert, Rafael Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rafael Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rafael. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rafael Holdings' price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Rafael Holdings Class Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Rafael Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Rafael Holdings' current price.

Rafael Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rafael Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rafael Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rafael Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rafael Holdings Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Rafael Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Rafael Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rafael Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rafael stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Rafael Holdings Class is a strong investment it is important to analyze Rafael Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Rafael Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Rafael Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rafael Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Real Estate Management & Development space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rafael Holdings. If investors know Rafael will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Rafael Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.45)
Revenue Per Share
0.027
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.426
Return On Assets
(0.66)
Return On Equity
(0.71)
The market value of Rafael Holdings Class is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Rafael that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Rafael Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Rafael Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Rafael Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Rafael Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Rafael Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Rafael Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rafael Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.