QUALCOMM Incorporated Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

QCOM Stock   21.48  0.15  0.69%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of QUALCOMM Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 21.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.32. QUALCOMM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast QUALCOMM Incorporated stock prices and determine the direction of QUALCOMM Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, QUALCOMM Incorporated's Property Plant And Equipment Net is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Net Debt is expected to grow to about 7 B, whereas Total Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 8.8 B.
A four-period moving average forecast model for QUALCOMM Incorporated is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

QUALCOMM Incorporated 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of QUALCOMM Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 21.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict QUALCOMM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that QUALCOMM Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

QUALCOMM Incorporated Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest QUALCOMM IncorporatedQUALCOMM Incorporated Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

QUALCOMM Incorporated Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting QUALCOMM Incorporated's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. QUALCOMM Incorporated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.51 and 23.55, respectively. We have considered QUALCOMM Incorporated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.48
21.53
Expected Value
23.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of QUALCOMM Incorporated stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent QUALCOMM Incorporated stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.6166
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0535
MADMean absolute deviation0.3985
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0178
SAESum of the absolute errors22.3175
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of QUALCOMM Incorporated. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for QUALCOMM Incorporated and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for QUALCOMM Incorporated

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as QUALCOMM Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.4721.4923.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.3817.4023.63
Details

Other Forecasting Options for QUALCOMM Incorporated

For every potential investor in QUALCOMM, whether a beginner or expert, QUALCOMM Incorporated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. QUALCOMM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in QUALCOMM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying QUALCOMM Incorporated's price trends.

QUALCOMM Incorporated Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with QUALCOMM Incorporated stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing QUALCOMM Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

QUALCOMM Incorporated Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of QUALCOMM Incorporated's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of QUALCOMM Incorporated's current price.

QUALCOMM Incorporated Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how QUALCOMM Incorporated stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading QUALCOMM Incorporated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying QUALCOMM Incorporated stock market strength indicators, traders can identify QUALCOMM Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

QUALCOMM Incorporated Risk Indicators

The analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in QUALCOMM Incorporated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting qualcomm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with QUALCOMM Incorporated

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if QUALCOMM Incorporated position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in QUALCOMM Incorporated will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with QUALCOMM Stock

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  0.71AMD Advanced Micro DevicesPairCorr

Moving against QUALCOMM Stock

  0.61COST Costco Wholesale CorpPairCorr
  0.57WMT Walmart Inc CDRPairCorr
  0.41AMZN Amazon CDRPairCorr
  0.41JPM JPMorgan ChasePairCorr
  0.39BRK Berkshire Hathaway CDRPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to QUALCOMM Incorporated could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace QUALCOMM Incorporated when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back QUALCOMM Incorporated - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling QUALCOMM Incorporated to buy it.
The correlation of QUALCOMM Incorporated is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as QUALCOMM Incorporated moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if QUALCOMM Incorporated moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for QUALCOMM Incorporated can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether QUALCOMM Incorporated is a strong investment it is important to analyze QUALCOMM Incorporated's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact QUALCOMM Incorporated's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding QUALCOMM Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade QUALCOMM Stock refer to our How to Trade QUALCOMM Stock guide.
You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Please note, there is a significant difference between QUALCOMM Incorporated's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if QUALCOMM Incorporated is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, QUALCOMM Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.