PGT Innovations Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PGTIDelisted Stock  USD 27.95  0.05  0.18%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PGT Innovations on the next trading day is expected to be 28.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.41. PGT Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PGT Innovations' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for PGT Innovations is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of PGT Innovations value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

PGT Innovations Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PGT Innovations on the next trading day is expected to be 28.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PGT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PGT Innovations' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PGT Innovations Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PGT Innovations stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PGT Innovations stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.8214
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4002
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0148
SAESum of the absolute errors24.4093
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of PGT Innovations. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict PGT Innovations. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for PGT Innovations

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PGT Innovations. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PGT Innovations' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.9527.9527.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.3623.3630.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
27.5928.1528.71
Details

PGT Innovations Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PGT Innovations stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PGT Innovations could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PGT Innovations by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PGT Innovations Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PGT Innovations stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PGT Innovations shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PGT Innovations stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PGT Innovations entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PGT Innovations Risk Indicators

The analysis of PGT Innovations' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PGT Innovations' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pgt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate.
You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

Other Consideration for investing in PGT Stock

If you are still planning to invest in PGT Innovations check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the PGT Innovations' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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