Paychex Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PCX Stock  EUR 135.52  1.68  1.26%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Paychex on the next trading day is expected to be 135.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.66. Paychex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Paychex's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Paychex simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Paychex are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Paychex prices get older.

Paychex Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Paychex on the next trading day is expected to be 135.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 3.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Paychex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Paychex's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Paychex Stock Forecast Pattern

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Paychex Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Paychex's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Paychex's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 134.17 and 136.87, respectively. We have considered Paychex's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
135.52
134.17
Downside
135.52
Expected Value
136.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Paychex stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Paychex stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.401
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.29
MADMean absolute deviation1.1777
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0089
SAESum of the absolute errors70.66
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Paychex forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Paychex observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Paychex

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Paychex. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
134.17135.52136.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
121.97156.04157.39
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Paychex

For every potential investor in Paychex, whether a beginner or expert, Paychex's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Paychex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Paychex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Paychex's price trends.

Paychex Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Paychex stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Paychex could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Paychex by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Paychex Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Paychex's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Paychex's current price.

Paychex Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Paychex stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Paychex shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Paychex stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Paychex entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Paychex Risk Indicators

The analysis of Paychex's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Paychex's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting paychex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Paychex Stock

When determining whether Paychex offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Paychex's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Paychex Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Paychex Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paychex to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Paychex Stock please use our How to Invest in Paychex guide.
You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Paychex's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Paychex is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Paychex's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.