NatWest Group Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NWG Stock | 402.70 3.80 0.95% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NatWest Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 404.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 272.18. NatWest Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NatWest Group stock prices and determine the direction of NatWest Group PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NatWest Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
NatWest |
NatWest Group Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NatWest Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 404.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.61, mean absolute percentage error of 35.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 272.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NatWest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NatWest Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NatWest Group Stock Forecast Pattern
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NatWest Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NatWest Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NatWest Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 402.77 and 405.79, respectively. We have considered NatWest Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NatWest Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NatWest Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.9984 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.6132 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 272.1763 |
Predictive Modules for NatWest Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NatWest Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for NatWest Group
For every potential investor in NatWest, whether a beginner or expert, NatWest Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NatWest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NatWest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NatWest Group's price trends.NatWest Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NatWest Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NatWest Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NatWest Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NatWest Group PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NatWest Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NatWest Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
NatWest Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NatWest Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NatWest Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NatWest Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NatWest Group PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NatWest Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of NatWest Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NatWest Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting natwest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Variance | 2.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether NatWest Group PLC is a strong investment it is important to analyze NatWest Group's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact NatWest Group's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding NatWest Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NatWest Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.