National Australia Preferred Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

NABPF Preferred Stock   103.99  0.39  0.38%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Australia Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 104.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.69. National Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National Australia stock prices and determine the direction of National Australia Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Australia's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for National Australia works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

National Australia Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Australia Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 104.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Australia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

National Australia Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

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National Australia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting National Australia's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Australia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 103.84 and 104.30, respectively. We have considered National Australia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
103.99
103.84
Downside
104.07
Expected Value
104.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Australia preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Australia preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0357
MADMean absolute deviation0.2116
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0021
SAESum of the absolute errors12.6941
When National Australia Bank prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any National Australia Bank trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent National Australia observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for National Australia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Australia Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
103.76103.99104.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
101.28101.51114.39
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
102.84103.37103.90
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Australia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Australia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Australia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in National Australia Bank.

Other Forecasting Options for National Australia

For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Australia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Australia's price trends.

National Australia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Australia preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Australia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Australia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

National Australia Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics

The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Australia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Australia's current price.

National Australia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Australia preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Australia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Australia preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Australia Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

National Australia Risk Indicators

The analysis of National Australia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Australia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in National Preferred Stock

National Australia financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Australia security.