MWIG40 Index Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MWIG40 Index | 6,176 9.08 0.15% |
MWIG40 Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MWIG40 on the next trading day is expected to be 6,176 with a mean absolute deviation of 38.08, mean absolute percentage error of 2,529, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,285.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MWIG40 Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MWIG40's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MWIG40 Index Forecast Pattern
MWIG40 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MWIG40's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MWIG40's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6,175 and 6,177, respectively. We have considered MWIG40's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MWIG40 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MWIG40 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.108 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6942 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 38.0755 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0063 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2284.53 |
Predictive Modules for MWIG40
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MWIG40. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MWIG40. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MWIG40's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MWIG40's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in MWIG40.Other Forecasting Options for MWIG40
For every potential investor in MWIG40, whether a beginner or expert, MWIG40's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MWIG40 Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MWIG40. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MWIG40's price trends.MWIG40 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MWIG40 index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MWIG40 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MWIG40 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MWIG40 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MWIG40's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MWIG40's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MWIG40 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MWIG40 index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MWIG40 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MWIG40 index market strength indicators, traders can identify MWIG40 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MWIG40 Risk Indicators
The analysis of MWIG40's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MWIG40's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mwig40 index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6574 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8495 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8791 | |||
| Variance | 0.7728 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8193 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7217 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.66) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.