MorphoSys Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MorphoSys AG ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 2.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 119.00. MorphoSys Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
MorphoSys |
MorphoSys Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MorphoSys AG ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 2.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95, mean absolute percentage error of 8.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 119.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MorphoSys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MorphoSys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MorphoSys Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MorphoSys | MorphoSys Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MorphoSys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MorphoSys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.2137 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9508 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.223372036854776E14 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 119.0001 |
Predictive Modules for MorphoSys
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MorphoSys AG ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.View MorphoSys Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MorphoSys Risk Indicators
The analysis of MorphoSys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MorphoSys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting morphosys stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9575 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with MorphoSys
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if MorphoSys position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in MorphoSys will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against MorphoSys Stock
| 0.84 | MMV | MultiMetaVerse Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | THCPU | Thunder Bridge Capital | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | HSDT | Helius Medical Techn | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | OPTX | Syntec Optics Holdings Trending | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | CREVW | Carbon Revolution Public | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to MorphoSys could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace MorphoSys when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back MorphoSys - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling MorphoSys AG ADR to buy it.
The correlation of MorphoSys is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as MorphoSys moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if MorphoSys AG ADR moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for MorphoSys can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in persons. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Other Consideration for investing in MorphoSys Stock
If you are still planning to invest in MorphoSys AG ADR check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the MorphoSys' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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