Mainstay Common Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

MOPBX Fund  USD 34.97  0.00  0.00%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mainstay Mon Stock on the next trading day is expected to be 35.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.06. Mainstay Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Mainstay Common - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Mainstay Common prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Mainstay Common price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Mainstay Mon Stock.

Mainstay Common Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mainstay Mon Stock on the next trading day is expected to be 35.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mainstay Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mainstay Common's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mainstay Common Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mainstay Common mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mainstay Common mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.025
MADMean absolute deviation0.2213
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0065
SAESum of the absolute errors13.0562
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Mainstay Common observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Mainstay Mon Stock observations.

Predictive Modules for Mainstay Common

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Mon Stock. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.1634.9735.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.6533.4638.47
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mainstay Common. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mainstay Common's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mainstay Common's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mainstay Mon Stock.

Mainstay Common Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mainstay Common mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mainstay Common could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mainstay Common by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mainstay Common Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mainstay Common mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mainstay Common shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mainstay Common mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Mainstay Mon Stock entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mainstay Common Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mainstay Common's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mainstay Common's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mainstay mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund

Mainstay Common financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Common security.
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