Medical Packaging Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

MEDP Stock   1.26  0.02  1.61%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Medical Packaging on the next trading day is expected to be 1.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.49. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Medical Packaging's stock prices and determine the direction of Medical Packaging's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Medical Packaging's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Medical Packaging is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Medical Packaging 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Medical Packaging on the next trading day is expected to be 1.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Medical Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Medical Packaging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Medical Packaging Stock Forecast Pattern

Medical Packaging Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Medical Packaging's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Medical Packaging's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 3.62, respectively. We have considered Medical Packaging's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.26
1.25
Expected Value
3.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Medical Packaging stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Medical Packaging stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria104.1597
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0062
MADMean absolute deviation0.0261
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0198
SAESum of the absolute errors1.4875
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Medical Packaging. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Medical Packaging and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Medical Packaging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medical Packaging. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Medical Packaging

For every potential investor in Medical, whether a beginner or expert, Medical Packaging's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Medical Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Medical. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Medical Packaging's price trends.

Medical Packaging Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Medical Packaging stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Medical Packaging could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Medical Packaging by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Medical Packaging Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Medical Packaging's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Medical Packaging's current price.

Medical Packaging Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Medical Packaging stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Medical Packaging shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Medical Packaging stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Medical Packaging entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Medical Packaging Risk Indicators

The analysis of Medical Packaging's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Medical Packaging's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medical stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.