Emdeki Utama Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

MDKI Stock  IDR 174.00  1.00  0.57%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Emdeki Utama Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 175.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.04. Emdeki Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Emdeki Utama price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Emdeki Utama Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Emdeki Utama Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 175.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39, mean absolute percentage error of 2.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.04.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Emdeki Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Emdeki Utama's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Emdeki Utama Stock Forecast Pattern

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Emdeki Utama Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Emdeki Utama's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Emdeki Utama's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 174.48 and 175.70, respectively. We have considered Emdeki Utama's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
174.00
174.48
Downside
175.09
Expected Value
175.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Emdeki Utama stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Emdeki Utama stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.9113
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3877
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0076
SAESum of the absolute errors86.0379
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Emdeki Utama Tbk historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Emdeki Utama

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Emdeki Utama Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
173.39174.00174.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
140.33140.94191.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
173.75181.42189.08
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Emdeki Utama

For every potential investor in Emdeki, whether a beginner or expert, Emdeki Utama's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Emdeki Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Emdeki. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Emdeki Utama's price trends.

Emdeki Utama Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Emdeki Utama stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Emdeki Utama could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Emdeki Utama by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Emdeki Utama Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Emdeki Utama's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Emdeki Utama's current price.

Emdeki Utama Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Emdeki Utama stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Emdeki Utama shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Emdeki Utama stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Emdeki Utama Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Emdeki Utama Risk Indicators

The analysis of Emdeki Utama's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Emdeki Utama's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting emdeki stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Emdeki Stock

Emdeki Utama financial ratios help investors to determine whether Emdeki Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Emdeki with respect to the benefits of owning Emdeki Utama security.