Lippo Cikarang Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

LPCK Stock  IDR 605.00  15.00  2.42%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lippo Cikarang Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 605.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 875.00. Lippo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Lippo Cikarang simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Lippo Cikarang Tbk are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Lippo Cikarang Tbk prices get older.

Lippo Cikarang Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lippo Cikarang Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 605.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.58, mean absolute percentage error of 489.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 875.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lippo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lippo Cikarang's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Lippo Cikarang Stock Forecast Pattern

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Lippo Cikarang Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Lippo Cikarang's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lippo Cikarang's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 602.09 and 607.91, respectively. We have considered Lippo Cikarang's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
605.00
602.09
Downside
605.00
Expected Value
607.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lippo Cikarang stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lippo Cikarang stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.4662
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 2.5833
MADMean absolute deviation14.5833
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0195
SAESum of the absolute errors875.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Lippo Cikarang Tbk forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Lippo Cikarang observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Lippo Cikarang

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lippo Cikarang Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
602.09605.00607.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
555.69558.60665.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
577.42659.00740.58
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Lippo Cikarang

For every potential investor in Lippo, whether a beginner or expert, Lippo Cikarang's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lippo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lippo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lippo Cikarang's price trends.

Lippo Cikarang Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lippo Cikarang stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lippo Cikarang could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lippo Cikarang by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Lippo Cikarang Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lippo Cikarang's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lippo Cikarang's current price.

Lippo Cikarang Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lippo Cikarang stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lippo Cikarang shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lippo Cikarang stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lippo Cikarang Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Lippo Cikarang Risk Indicators

The analysis of Lippo Cikarang's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lippo Cikarang's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lippo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Lippo Stock

Lippo Cikarang financial ratios help investors to determine whether Lippo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Lippo with respect to the benefits of owning Lippo Cikarang security.