KILIMA VOLKANO Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

KIVO11 Fund   57.14  0.04  0.07%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of KILIMA VOLKANO RECEBVEIS on the next trading day is expected to be 57.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.02. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast KILIMA VOLKANO's fund prices and determine the direction of KILIMA VOLKANO RECEBVEIS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for KILIMA VOLKANO RECEBVEIS is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

KILIMA VOLKANO 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of KILIMA VOLKANO RECEBVEIS on the next trading day is expected to be 57.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79, mean absolute percentage error of 5.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KILIMA Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KILIMA VOLKANO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

KILIMA VOLKANO Fund Forecast Pattern

KILIMA VOLKANO Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting KILIMA VOLKANO's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KILIMA VOLKANO's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.80 and 59.94, respectively. We have considered KILIMA VOLKANO's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
57.14
57.87
Expected Value
59.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KILIMA VOLKANO fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KILIMA VOLKANO fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.2109
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.7934
MADMean absolute deviation1.7934
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0261
SAESum of the absolute errors104.02
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of KILIMA VOLKANO. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for KILIMA VOLKANO RECEBVEIS and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for KILIMA VOLKANO

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KILIMA VOLKANO RECEBVEIS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for KILIMA VOLKANO

For every potential investor in KILIMA, whether a beginner or expert, KILIMA VOLKANO's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KILIMA Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KILIMA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KILIMA VOLKANO's price trends.

KILIMA VOLKANO Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KILIMA VOLKANO fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KILIMA VOLKANO could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KILIMA VOLKANO by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

KILIMA VOLKANO RECEBVEIS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of KILIMA VOLKANO's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of KILIMA VOLKANO's current price.

KILIMA VOLKANO Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KILIMA VOLKANO fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KILIMA VOLKANO shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KILIMA VOLKANO fund market strength indicators, traders can identify KILIMA VOLKANO RECEBVEIS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

KILIMA VOLKANO Risk Indicators

The analysis of KILIMA VOLKANO's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KILIMA VOLKANO's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kilima fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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