Johnson Outdoors Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

JOUT Stock  USD 36.69  1.31  3.70%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Johnson Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 32.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.89. Johnson Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Johnson Outdoors' Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 5.10 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 8.77 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 9.7 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 25.9 M in 2024.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Johnson Outdoors price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Johnson Outdoors Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Johnson Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 32.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 1.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.89.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Johnson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Johnson Outdoors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Johnson Outdoors Stock Forecast Pattern

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Johnson Outdoors Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Johnson Outdoors' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Johnson Outdoors' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.04 and 34.64, respectively. We have considered Johnson Outdoors' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
36.69
32.84
Expected Value
34.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Johnson Outdoors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Johnson Outdoors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.616
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0474
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0307
SAESum of the absolute errors63.89
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Johnson Outdoors historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Johnson Outdoors

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Johnson Outdoors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Johnson Outdoors' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.2035.9537.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.3448.5450.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.3433.4535.56
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
79.1787.0096.57
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Johnson Outdoors

For every potential investor in Johnson, whether a beginner or expert, Johnson Outdoors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Johnson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Johnson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Johnson Outdoors' price trends.

Johnson Outdoors Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Johnson Outdoors stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Johnson Outdoors could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Johnson Outdoors by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Johnson Outdoors Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Johnson Outdoors' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Johnson Outdoors' current price.

Johnson Outdoors Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Johnson Outdoors stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Johnson Outdoors shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Johnson Outdoors stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Johnson Outdoors entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Johnson Outdoors Risk Indicators

The analysis of Johnson Outdoors' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Johnson Outdoors' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting johnson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Johnson Stock Analysis

When running Johnson Outdoors' price analysis, check to measure Johnson Outdoors' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Johnson Outdoors is operating at the current time. Most of Johnson Outdoors' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Johnson Outdoors' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Johnson Outdoors' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Johnson Outdoors to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.