Innovative Technology Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ITD Stock   13,050  200.00  1.51%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Innovative Technology Development on the next trading day is expected to be 13,277 with a mean absolute deviation of 206.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12,815. Innovative Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Innovative Technology is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Innovative Technology Development value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Innovative Technology Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Innovative Technology Development on the next trading day is expected to be 13,277 with a mean absolute deviation of 206.70, mean absolute percentage error of 75,540, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12,815.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Innovative Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Innovative Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Innovative Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Oct 1Oct 10Oct 21Oct 30Nov 8Nov 19Nov 28Dec 9Next 212,00012,50013,00013,50014,00014,500
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Innovative Technology Innovative Technology forecast
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Innovative Technology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Innovative Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Innovative Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13,275 and 13,278, respectively. We have considered Innovative Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13,050
13,275
Downside
13,277
Expected Value
13,278
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Innovative Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Innovative Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria131.1808
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation206.6968
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0157
SAESum of the absolute errors12815.2014
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Innovative Technology Development. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Innovative Technology. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Innovative Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Innovative Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13,24813,25013,252
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12,71812,72014,575
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12,69213,05413,415
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Innovative Technology

For every potential investor in Innovative, whether a beginner or expert, Innovative Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Innovative Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Innovative. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Innovative Technology's price trends.

Innovative Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Innovative Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Innovative Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Innovative Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Innovative Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Innovative Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Innovative Technology's current price.

Innovative Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Innovative Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Innovative Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Innovative Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Innovative Technology Development entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Innovative Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Innovative Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Innovative Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting innovative stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Innovative Technology

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Innovative Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Innovative Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Innovative Stock

  0.76ABT Bentre Aquaproduct ImportPairCorr
  0.74AAM Mekong Fisheries JSCPairCorr
  0.67AAA An Phat PlasticPairCorr
  0.59ADS Damsan JSCPairCorr
  0.59AME Alphanam MEPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Innovative Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Innovative Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Innovative Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Innovative Technology Development to buy it.
The correlation of Innovative Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Innovative Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Innovative Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Innovative Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Innovative Stock

Innovative Technology financial ratios help investors to determine whether Innovative Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Innovative with respect to the benefits of owning Innovative Technology security.

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