India Glycols Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

INDIAGLYCO   1,276  15.95  1.27%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of India Glycols Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1,203 with a mean absolute deviation of 73.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,483. India Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although India Glycols' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of India Glycols' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of India Glycols fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, India Glycols' Cash And Short Term Investments are quite stable compared to the past year. Short Term Investments is expected to rise to about 722.2 M this year, although the value of Short and Long Term Debt Total will most likely fall to about 13.2 B.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through India Glycols price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

India Glycols Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of India Glycols Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1,203 with a mean absolute deviation of 73.49, mean absolute percentage error of 8,065, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,483.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict India Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that India Glycols' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

India Glycols Stock Forecast Pattern

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India Glycols Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting India Glycols' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. India Glycols' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,200 and 1,207, respectively. We have considered India Glycols' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,276
1,203
Expected Value
1,207
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of India Glycols stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent India Glycols stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.1058
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation73.4871
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0569
SAESum of the absolute errors4482.7106
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as India Glycols Limited historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for India Glycols

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as India Glycols Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,2731,2761,280
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,0771,0801,404
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,0721,1911,310
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as India Glycols. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against India Glycols' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, India Glycols' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in India Glycols Limited.

Other Forecasting Options for India Glycols

For every potential investor in India, whether a beginner or expert, India Glycols' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. India Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in India. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying India Glycols' price trends.

India Glycols Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with India Glycols stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of India Glycols could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing India Glycols by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

India Glycols Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of India Glycols' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of India Glycols' current price.

India Glycols Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how India Glycols stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading India Glycols shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying India Glycols stock market strength indicators, traders can identify India Glycols Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

India Glycols Risk Indicators

The analysis of India Glycols' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in India Glycols' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting india stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in India Stock

India Glycols financial ratios help investors to determine whether India Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in India with respect to the benefits of owning India Glycols security.