Intrepid Endurance Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Intrepid Endurance works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Intrepid Endurance Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Intrepid Endurance Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 16.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.36.

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Intrepid Endurance mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Intrepid Endurance mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Intrepid Endurance Fund prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Intrepid Endurance Fund trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Intrepid Endurance observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Intrepid Endurance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intrepid Endurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 15.41 16.25 17.09 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 14.30 15.14 17.88 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 15.88 16.10 16.33 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Intrepid Endurance. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Intrepid Endurance's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Intrepid Endurance's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Intrepid Endurance.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

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