Honda Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

HNDAF Stock  USD 8.80  0.03  0.34%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Honda Motor Co on the next trading day is expected to be 8.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.45. Honda Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Honda's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Honda works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Honda Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Honda Motor Co on the next trading day is expected to be 8.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Honda Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Honda's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Honda Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Honda Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Honda's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Honda's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.24 and 12.35, respectively. We have considered Honda's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.80
8.80
Expected Value
12.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Honda pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Honda pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0299
MADMean absolute deviation0.228
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0234
SAESum of the absolute errors13.45
When Honda Motor Co prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Honda Motor Co trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Honda observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Honda

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Honda Motor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.278.8012.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.297.8211.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Honda. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Honda's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Honda's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Honda Motor.

Other Forecasting Options for Honda

For every potential investor in Honda, whether a beginner or expert, Honda's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Honda Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Honda. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Honda's price trends.

Honda Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Honda pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Honda could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Honda by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Honda Motor Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Honda's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Honda's current price.

Honda Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Honda pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Honda shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Honda pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Honda Motor Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Honda Risk Indicators

The analysis of Honda's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Honda's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting honda pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Honda Pink Sheet

When determining whether Honda Motor offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Honda's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Honda Motor Co Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Honda Motor Co Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Honda to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Honda's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Honda is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Honda's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.