Hilton Worldwide Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HLT Stock | USD 253.72 3.72 1.49% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 253.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.76. Hilton Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Hilton |
Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 Hilton Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hilton Worldwide's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hilton Worldwide's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hilton Worldwide stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hilton Worldwide's open interest, investors have to compare it to Hilton Worldwide's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hilton Worldwide is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hilton. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Hilton Worldwide Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 253.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98, mean absolute percentage error of 7.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hilton Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hilton Worldwide's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hilton Worldwide Stock Forecast Pattern
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Hilton Worldwide Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hilton Worldwide's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hilton Worldwide's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 252.54 and 254.76, respectively. We have considered Hilton Worldwide's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hilton Worldwide stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hilton Worldwide stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2797 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6754 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9794 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0082 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 118.7639 |
Predictive Modules for Hilton Worldwide
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hilton Worldwide Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Hilton Worldwide
For every potential investor in Hilton, whether a beginner or expert, Hilton Worldwide's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hilton Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hilton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hilton Worldwide's price trends.Hilton Worldwide Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hilton Worldwide stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hilton Worldwide could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hilton Worldwide by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hilton Worldwide's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hilton Worldwide's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Hilton Worldwide Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hilton Worldwide stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hilton Worldwide shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hilton Worldwide stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hilton Worldwide Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hilton Worldwide Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hilton Worldwide's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hilton Worldwide's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hilton stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8108 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9035 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Variance | 1.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8163 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Hilton Stock Analysis
When running Hilton Worldwide's price analysis, check to measure Hilton Worldwide's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hilton Worldwide is operating at the current time. Most of Hilton Worldwide's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hilton Worldwide's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hilton Worldwide's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hilton Worldwide to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.