Guidemark Smallmid Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

GMSMX Fund  USD 22.69  0.15  0.67%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Guidemark Smallmid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 22.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.00. Guidemark Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Guidemark Smallmid Cap is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Guidemark Smallmid 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Guidemark Smallmid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 22.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guidemark Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guidemark Smallmid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Guidemark Smallmid Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Guidemark Smallmid Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Guidemark Smallmid's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guidemark Smallmid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.58 and 23.71, respectively. We have considered Guidemark Smallmid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.69
22.64
Expected Value
23.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guidemark Smallmid mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guidemark Smallmid mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.8059
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0736
MADMean absolute deviation0.2632
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.012
SAESum of the absolute errors15.0025
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Guidemark Smallmid. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Guidemark Smallmid Cap and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Guidemark Smallmid

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guidemark Smallmid Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.6222.6923.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.4224.2725.34
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Guidemark Smallmid

For every potential investor in Guidemark, whether a beginner or expert, Guidemark Smallmid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guidemark Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guidemark. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guidemark Smallmid's price trends.

Guidemark Smallmid Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guidemark Smallmid mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guidemark Smallmid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guidemark Smallmid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Guidemark Smallmid Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guidemark Smallmid's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guidemark Smallmid's current price.

Guidemark Smallmid Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Guidemark Smallmid mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Guidemark Smallmid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Guidemark Smallmid mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Guidemark Smallmid Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Guidemark Smallmid Risk Indicators

The analysis of Guidemark Smallmid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guidemark Smallmid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting guidemark mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Guidemark Mutual Fund

Guidemark Smallmid financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guidemark Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guidemark with respect to the benefits of owning Guidemark Smallmid security.
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