MicroSectors Gold Etf Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

GDXU Etf  USD 38.57  0.20  0.52%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of MicroSectors Gold Miners on the next trading day is expected to be 36.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 256.62. MicroSectors Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for MicroSectors Gold Miners is based on a synthetically constructed MicroSectors Golddaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

MicroSectors Gold 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of MicroSectors Gold Miners on the next trading day is expected to be 36.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.11, mean absolute percentage error of 62.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 256.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MicroSectors Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MicroSectors Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

MicroSectors Gold Etf Forecast Pattern

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MicroSectors Gold Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting MicroSectors Gold's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MicroSectors Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.82 and 42.26, respectively. We have considered MicroSectors Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
38.57
36.54
Expected Value
42.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MicroSectors Gold etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MicroSectors Gold etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria87.3278
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 2.498
MADMean absolute deviation6.1099
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1507
SAESum of the absolute errors256.6155
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. MicroSectors Gold Miners 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for MicroSectors Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MicroSectors Gold Miners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MicroSectors Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
32.4638.4644.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
31.3637.3643.36
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
30.8737.1743.46
Details

Other Forecasting Options for MicroSectors Gold

For every potential investor in MicroSectors, whether a beginner or expert, MicroSectors Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MicroSectors Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MicroSectors. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MicroSectors Gold's price trends.

MicroSectors Gold Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MicroSectors Gold etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MicroSectors Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MicroSectors Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

MicroSectors Gold Miners Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MicroSectors Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MicroSectors Gold's current price.

MicroSectors Gold Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MicroSectors Gold etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MicroSectors Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MicroSectors Gold etf market strength indicators, traders can identify MicroSectors Gold Miners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

MicroSectors Gold Risk Indicators

The analysis of MicroSectors Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MicroSectors Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microsectors etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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When determining whether MicroSectors Gold Miners is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if MicroSectors Etf is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Microsectors Gold Miners Etf. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Microsectors Gold Miners Etf:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MicroSectors Gold to cross-verify your projections.
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The market value of MicroSectors Gold Miners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MicroSectors that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MicroSectors Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MicroSectors Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MicroSectors Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MicroSectors Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MicroSectors Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MicroSectors Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MicroSectors Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.