Empire State Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

FISK Stock  USD 11.11  0.06  0.54%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Empire State Realty on the next trading day is expected to be 11.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.10. Empire Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Empire State's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Empire State's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Empire State fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Empire State's Inventory Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 27.31 this year, although the value of Payables Turnover will most likely fall to 5.42. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 229 M. The value of Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to slide to about 51.7 M.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Empire State works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Empire State Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Empire State Realty on the next trading day is expected to be 11.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Empire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Empire State's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Empire State Stock Forecast Pattern

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Empire State Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Empire State's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Empire State's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.29 and 12.92, respectively. We have considered Empire State's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.11
11.11
Expected Value
12.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Empire State stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Empire State stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0023
MADMean absolute deviation0.1016
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0093
SAESum of the absolute errors6.0985
When Empire State Realty prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Empire State Realty trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Empire State observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Empire State

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Empire State Realty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Empire State's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.3011.1112.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.439.2412.22
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Empire State

For every potential investor in Empire, whether a beginner or expert, Empire State's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Empire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Empire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Empire State's price trends.

Empire State Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Empire State stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Empire State could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Empire State by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Empire State Realty Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Empire State's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Empire State's current price.

Empire State Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Empire State stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Empire State shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Empire State stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Empire State Realty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Empire State Risk Indicators

The analysis of Empire State's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Empire State's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting empire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Empire State Realty is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Empire Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Empire State Realty Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Empire State Realty Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Empire State to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Diversified REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Empire State. If investors know Empire will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Empire State listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.143
Dividend Share
0.14
Earnings Share
0.27
Revenue Per Share
3.092
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.017
The market value of Empire State Realty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Empire that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Empire State's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Empire State's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Empire State's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Empire State's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Empire State's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Empire State is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Empire State's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.