First Trust Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

First Trust polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for First Trust Energy as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

First Trust Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First Trust Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 14.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.16.

First Trust Fund Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Trust fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Trust fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the First Trust historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a₀ + a₁*X + a₂*X² + a₃*X³ + ... + a_m*X^m

Predictive Modules for First Trust

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 14.09 14.09 14.09 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 12.83 12.83 15.50 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 13.33 13.68 14.02 Details

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Risk & Return

Correlation

First Trust Market Strength Events

First Trust Risk Indicators

Pair Trading with First Trust

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if First Trust position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First Trust will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Other Consideration for investing in First Fund