Elfun Diversified Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

Elfun Diversified simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Elfun Diversified Fund are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Elfun Diversified prices get older.

Elfun Diversified Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elfun Diversified Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 22.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.12.

Elfun Diversified Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Elfun Diversified

Elfun Diversified Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Elfun Diversified Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elfun Diversified mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elfun Diversified mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Elfun Diversified Fund forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Elfun Diversified observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Elfun Diversified

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elfun Diversified. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 21.69 22.08 22.47 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 21.61 22.00 22.39 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 21.38 21.77 22.17 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Elfun Diversified. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Elfun Diversified's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Elfun Diversified's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Elfun Diversified.

Other Forecasting Options for Elfun Diversified

For every potential investor in Elfun, whether a beginner or expert, Elfun Diversified's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elfun Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elfun. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elfun Diversified's price trends.

Elfun Diversified Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Elfun Diversified Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Elfun Diversified's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Elfun Diversified's current price.

Elfun Diversified Market Strength Events

Elfun Diversified Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Elfun Mutual Fund