Electronic City Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ECII Stock  IDR 308.00  6.00  1.91%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Electronic City Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 264.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 914.21. Electronic Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Electronic City is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Electronic City Indonesia value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Electronic City Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Electronic City Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 264.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.75, mean absolute percentage error of 405.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 914.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Electronic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Electronic City's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Electronic City Stock Forecast Pattern

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Electronic City Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Electronic City's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Electronic City's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 256.15 and 272.15, respectively. We have considered Electronic City's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
308.00
256.15
Downside
264.15
Expected Value
272.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Electronic City stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Electronic City stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.953
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation14.7453
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0631
SAESum of the absolute errors914.2062
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Electronic City Indonesia. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Electronic City. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Electronic City

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Electronic City Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
300.00308.00316.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
230.56238.56338.80
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Electronic City

For every potential investor in Electronic, whether a beginner or expert, Electronic City's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Electronic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Electronic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Electronic City's price trends.

Electronic City Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Electronic City stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Electronic City could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Electronic City by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Electronic City Indonesia Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Electronic City's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Electronic City's current price.

Electronic City Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Electronic City stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Electronic City shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Electronic City stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Electronic City Indonesia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Electronic City Risk Indicators

The analysis of Electronic City's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Electronic City's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting electronic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Electronic Stock

Electronic City financial ratios help investors to determine whether Electronic Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Electronic with respect to the benefits of owning Electronic City security.