Distilleries Company Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

DISTN0000  LKR 35.10  0.10  0.29%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Distilleries Company of on the next trading day is expected to be 32.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.96. Distilleries Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Distilleries Company stock prices and determine the direction of Distilleries Company of's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Distilleries Company's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Distilleries Company of is based on a synthetically constructed Distilleries Companydaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Distilleries Company 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Distilleries Company of on the next trading day is expected to be 32.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83, mean absolute percentage error of 4.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Distilleries Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Distilleries Company's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Distilleries Company Stock Forecast Pattern

Distilleries Company Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Distilleries Company's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Distilleries Company's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.38 and 34.24, respectively. We have considered Distilleries Company's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
35.10
32.81
Expected Value
34.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Distilleries Company stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Distilleries Company stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria82.9605
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.647
MADMean absolute deviation1.8284
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0569
SAESum of the absolute errors74.965
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Distilleries Company 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Distilleries Company

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Distilleries Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
33.6735.1036.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.4924.9238.61
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Distilleries Company

For every potential investor in Distilleries, whether a beginner or expert, Distilleries Company's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Distilleries Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Distilleries. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Distilleries Company's price trends.

Distilleries Company Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Distilleries Company stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Distilleries Company could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Distilleries Company by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Distilleries Company Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Distilleries Company's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Distilleries Company's current price.

Distilleries Company Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Distilleries Company stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Distilleries Company shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Distilleries Company stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Distilleries Company of entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Distilleries Company Risk Indicators

The analysis of Distilleries Company's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Distilleries Company's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting distilleries stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Distilleries Stock

Distilleries Company financial ratios help investors to determine whether Distilleries Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Distilleries with respect to the benefits of owning Distilleries Company security.