CVS Health Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

CVS Stock  EUR 46.53  1.67  3.46%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CVS Health Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 53.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.12. CVS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CVS Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for CVS Health Corp is based on a synthetically constructed CVS Healthdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

CVS Health 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CVS Health Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 53.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.10, mean absolute percentage error of 12.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CVS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CVS Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CVS Health Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CVS HealthCVS Health Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CVS Health Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CVS Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CVS Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.72 and 56.54, respectively. We have considered CVS Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
46.53
53.63
Expected Value
56.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CVS Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CVS Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria83.8883
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.3703
MADMean absolute deviation3.1005
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0596
SAESum of the absolute errors127.121
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. CVS Health Corp 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for CVS Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CVS Health Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
43.6246.5349.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
39.1842.0951.18
Details

Other Forecasting Options for CVS Health

For every potential investor in CVS, whether a beginner or expert, CVS Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CVS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CVS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CVS Health's price trends.

CVS Health Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CVS Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CVS Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CVS Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CVS Health Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CVS Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CVS Health's current price.

CVS Health Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CVS Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CVS Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CVS Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CVS Health Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CVS Health Risk Indicators

The analysis of CVS Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CVS Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cvs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in CVS Stock

When determining whether CVS Health Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze CVS Health's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact CVS Health's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding CVS Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CVS Health to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CVS Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CVS Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CVS Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.