Chefs Warehouse Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CHEF Stock | USD 44.71 0.15 0.34% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of The Chefs Warehouse on the next trading day is expected to be 45.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.10. Chefs Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Chefs Warehouse's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Chefs |
Chefs Warehouse Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Chefs Warehouse's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2009-12-31 | Previous Quarter 38.3 M | Current Value 50.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 61.3 M |
Chefs Warehouse Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of The Chefs Warehouse on the next trading day is expected to be 45.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77, mean absolute percentage error of 0.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chefs Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chefs Warehouse's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chefs Warehouse Stock Forecast Pattern
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Chefs Warehouse Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Chefs Warehouse's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chefs Warehouse's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.58 and 47.40, respectively. We have considered Chefs Warehouse's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chefs Warehouse stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chefs Warehouse stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9413 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7721 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0188 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.1003 |
Predictive Modules for Chefs Warehouse
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chefs Warehouse. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chefs Warehouse's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Chefs Warehouse
For every potential investor in Chefs, whether a beginner or expert, Chefs Warehouse's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chefs Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chefs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chefs Warehouse's price trends.Chefs Warehouse Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chefs Warehouse stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chefs Warehouse could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chefs Warehouse by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chefs Warehouse Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Chefs Warehouse's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Chefs Warehouse's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Chefs Warehouse Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chefs Warehouse stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chefs Warehouse shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chefs Warehouse stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Chefs Warehouse entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Chefs Warehouse Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chefs Warehouse's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chefs Warehouse's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chefs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Chefs Warehouse is a strong investment it is important to analyze Chefs Warehouse's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Chefs Warehouse's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Chefs Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chefs Warehouse to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chefs Warehouse. If investors know Chefs will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chefs Warehouse listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.766 | Earnings Share 1.16 | Revenue Per Share 98.108 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.056 | Return On Assets 0.0444 |
The market value of Chefs Warehouse is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chefs that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chefs Warehouse's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chefs Warehouse's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chefs Warehouse's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chefs Warehouse's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chefs Warehouse's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chefs Warehouse is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chefs Warehouse's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.