Deutsche Equity Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

BTIIX Fund  USD 190.16  1.04  0.54%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Deutsche Equity 500 on the next trading day is expected to be 190.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.70. Deutsche Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Deutsche Equity 500 is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Deutsche Equity 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Deutsche Equity 500 on the next trading day is expected to be 190.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33, mean absolute percentage error of 3.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Deutsche Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Deutsche Equity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Deutsche Equity Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Deutsche Equity Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Deutsche Equity's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Deutsche Equity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 189.64 and 190.97, respectively. We have considered Deutsche Equity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
190.16
189.64
Downside
190.31
Expected Value
190.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Deutsche Equity mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Deutsche Equity mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.9686
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.5086
MADMean absolute deviation1.328
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0072
SAESum of the absolute errors75.695
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Deutsche Equity. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Deutsche Equity 500 and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Deutsche Equity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deutsche Equity 500. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
190.54191.20191.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
172.08202.46203.12
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
178.91186.02193.12
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Deutsche Equity

For every potential investor in Deutsche, whether a beginner or expert, Deutsche Equity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Deutsche Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Deutsche. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Deutsche Equity's price trends.

Deutsche Equity Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Deutsche Equity mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Deutsche Equity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Deutsche Equity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Deutsche Equity 500 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Deutsche Equity's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Deutsche Equity's current price.

Deutsche Equity Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Deutsche Equity mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Deutsche Equity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Deutsche Equity mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Deutsche Equity 500 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Deutsche Equity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Deutsche Equity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Deutsche Equity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting deutsche mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Deutsche Mutual Fund

Deutsche Equity financial ratios help investors to determine whether Deutsche Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Deutsche with respect to the benefits of owning Deutsche Equity security.
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