Sentul City Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BKSL Stock  IDR 74.00  6.00  8.82%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sentul City Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 87.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.38. Sentul Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Sentul City is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Sentul City Tbk value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Sentul City Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sentul City Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 87.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.38, mean absolute percentage error of 3.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.38.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sentul Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sentul City's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sentul City Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Sentul CitySentul City Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Sentul City Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sentul City's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sentul City's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.68 and 90.95, respectively. We have considered Sentul City's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
74.00
87.31
Expected Value
90.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sentul City stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sentul City stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.2291
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3771
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0295
SAESum of the absolute errors85.382
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Sentul City Tbk. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Sentul City. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Sentul City

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sentul City Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
70.3674.0077.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
50.9654.6081.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
28.9946.6464.29
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Sentul City

For every potential investor in Sentul, whether a beginner or expert, Sentul City's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sentul Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sentul. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sentul City's price trends.

Sentul City Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sentul City stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sentul City could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sentul City by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sentul City Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sentul City's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sentul City's current price.

Sentul City Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sentul City stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sentul City shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sentul City stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sentul City Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sentul City Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sentul City's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sentul City's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sentul stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Sentul Stock

Sentul City financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sentul Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sentul with respect to the benefits of owning Sentul City security.