Ardent Health Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ARDT Stock | 15.98 0.04 0.25% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ardent Health Partners, on the next trading day is expected to be 15.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.51. Ardent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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Ardent Health Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ardent Health Partners, on the next trading day is expected to be 15.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ardent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ardent Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ardent Health Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ardent Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ardent Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ardent Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.43 and 19.35, respectively. We have considered Ardent Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ardent Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ardent Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0802 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5341 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0298 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.5124 |
Predictive Modules for Ardent Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ardent Health Partners,. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ardent Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Ardent Health
For every potential investor in Ardent, whether a beginner or expert, Ardent Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ardent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ardent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ardent Health's price trends.Ardent Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ardent Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ardent Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ardent Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ardent Health Partners, Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ardent Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ardent Health's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ardent Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ardent Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ardent Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ardent Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ardent Health Partners, entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ardent Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ardent Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ardent Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ardent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.46 | |||
| Variance | 11.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Ardent Stock Analysis
When running Ardent Health's price analysis, check to measure Ardent Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardent Health is operating at the current time. Most of Ardent Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardent Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardent Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardent Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.