Alarm Holdings Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ALRM Stock  USD 68.06  0.21  0.31%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alarm Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 68.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.79. Alarm Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Alarm Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alarm Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alarm Holdings fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Alarm Holdings' Receivables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 11th of December 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 18.06, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 3.21. . As of the 11th of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 46.9 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 34.3 M.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Alarm Holdings works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Alarm Holdings Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alarm Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 68.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85, mean absolute percentage error of 1.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alarm Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alarm Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alarm Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

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Alarm Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alarm Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alarm Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 66.36 and 70.61, respectively. We have considered Alarm Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
68.06
68.48
Expected Value
70.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alarm Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alarm Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2081
MADMean absolute deviation0.8466
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0144
SAESum of the absolute errors50.7944
When Alarm Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Alarm Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Alarm Holdings observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Alarm Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alarm Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
66.1568.2670.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
61.2570.4672.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
56.1163.1170.10
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
61.4967.5775.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Alarm Holdings

For every potential investor in Alarm, whether a beginner or expert, Alarm Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alarm Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alarm. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alarm Holdings' price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alarm Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alarm Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alarm Holdings' current price.

Alarm Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alarm Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alarm Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alarm Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alarm Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alarm Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alarm Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alarm Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alarm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Alarm Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Alarm Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Alarm Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Alarm Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alarm Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Alarm Stock, please use our How to Invest in Alarm Holdings guide.
You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alarm Holdings. If investors know Alarm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alarm Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.818
Earnings Share
2.32
Revenue Per Share
18.569
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.084
Return On Assets
0.0387
The market value of Alarm Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alarm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alarm Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alarm Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alarm Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alarm Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alarm Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alarm Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alarm Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.