Allegro Microsystems Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ALGM Stock  USD 21.04  0.32  1.50%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allegro Microsystems on the next trading day is expected to be 21.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.23. Allegro Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Allegro Microsystems' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Allegro Microsystems' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Allegro Microsystems fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Allegro Microsystems' Fixed Asset Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 11th of December 2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.82, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 2.83. . As of the 11th of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 210.3 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 226.2 M.
Triple exponential smoothing for Allegro Microsystems - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Allegro Microsystems prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Allegro Microsystems price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Allegro Microsystems.

Allegro Microsystems Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allegro Microsystems on the next trading day is expected to be 21.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allegro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allegro Microsystems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allegro Microsystems Stock Forecast Pattern

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Allegro Microsystems Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allegro Microsystems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allegro Microsystems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.87 and 24.22, respectively. We have considered Allegro Microsystems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.04
21.04
Expected Value
24.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allegro Microsystems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allegro Microsystems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1025
MADMean absolute deviation0.5704
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0265
SAESum of the absolute errors34.2264
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Allegro Microsystems observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Allegro Microsystems observations.

Predictive Modules for Allegro Microsystems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegro Microsystems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.8721.0424.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.9428.4031.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.1121.0122.91
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.0250.5756.13
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Allegro Microsystems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Allegro Microsystems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Allegro Microsystems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Allegro Microsystems.

Other Forecasting Options for Allegro Microsystems

For every potential investor in Allegro, whether a beginner or expert, Allegro Microsystems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allegro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allegro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allegro Microsystems' price trends.

Allegro Microsystems Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allegro Microsystems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allegro Microsystems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allegro Microsystems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allegro Microsystems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allegro Microsystems' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allegro Microsystems' current price.

Allegro Microsystems Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allegro Microsystems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allegro Microsystems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allegro Microsystems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allegro Microsystems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Allegro Microsystems Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allegro Microsystems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allegro Microsystems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allegro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Allegro Microsystems is a strong investment it is important to analyze Allegro Microsystems' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Allegro Microsystems' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Allegro Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allegro Microsystems to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Allegro Stock, please use our How to Invest in Allegro Microsystems guide.
You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allegro Microsystems. If investors know Allegro will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allegro Microsystems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.48)
Earnings Share
(0.14)
Revenue Per Share
4.423
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.32)
Return On Assets
0.0304
The market value of Allegro Microsystems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allegro that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allegro Microsystems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allegro Microsystems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allegro Microsystems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allegro Microsystems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allegro Microsystems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allegro Microsystems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allegro Microsystems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.