Alcon AG Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| ALC Stock | USD 88.23 0.99 1.13% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alcon AG on the next trading day is expected to be 87.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.31. Alcon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alcon AG stock prices and determine the direction of Alcon AG's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alcon AG's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Alcon |
Alcon AG 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alcon AG on the next trading day is expected to be 87.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.13, mean absolute percentage error of 2.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alcon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alcon AG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alcon AG Stock Forecast Pattern
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Alcon AG Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alcon AG's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alcon AG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.26 and 88.68, respectively. We have considered Alcon AG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alcon AG stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alcon AG stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.7322 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3834 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1283 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 64.315 |
Predictive Modules for Alcon AG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcon AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alcon AG
For every potential investor in Alcon, whether a beginner or expert, Alcon AG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alcon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alcon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alcon AG's price trends.Alcon AG Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alcon AG stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alcon AG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcon AG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alcon AG Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alcon AG's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alcon AG's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Alcon AG Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alcon AG stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alcon AG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alcon AG stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alcon AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alcon AG Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alcon AG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alcon AG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alcon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.838 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Variance | 1.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Alcon AG offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alcon AG's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alcon Ag Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alcon Ag Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcon AG to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Alcon Stock refer to our How to Trade Alcon Stock guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcon AG. If investors know Alcon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcon AG listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.293 | Earnings Share 2.34 | Revenue Per Share 19.757 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.054 | Return On Assets 0.0255 |
The market value of Alcon AG is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcon AG's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcon AG's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcon AG's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcon AG's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcon AG's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alcon AG is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcon AG's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.