Aberdeen Income Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

ACP Fund  USD 6.45  0.03  0.47%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aberdeen Income Credit on the next trading day is expected to be 6.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.55. Aberdeen Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Aberdeen Income is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aberdeen Income Credit value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aberdeen Income Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aberdeen Income Credit on the next trading day is expected to be 6.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.55.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aberdeen Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aberdeen Income's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aberdeen Income Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aberdeen IncomeAberdeen Income Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aberdeen Income Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aberdeen Income's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aberdeen Income's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.84 and 6.96, respectively. We have considered Aberdeen Income's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.45
6.40
Expected Value
6.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aberdeen Income fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aberdeen Income fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.3468
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0253
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.004
SAESum of the absolute errors1.5451
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aberdeen Income Credit. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aberdeen Income. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aberdeen Income

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aberdeen Income Credit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aberdeen Income's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.896.457.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.866.426.98
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Aberdeen Income

For every potential investor in Aberdeen, whether a beginner or expert, Aberdeen Income's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aberdeen Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aberdeen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aberdeen Income's price trends.

View Aberdeen Income Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aberdeen Income Credit Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aberdeen Income's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aberdeen Income's current price.

Aberdeen Income Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aberdeen Income fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aberdeen Income shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aberdeen Income fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aberdeen Income Credit entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aberdeen Income Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aberdeen Income's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aberdeen Income's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aberdeen fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Aberdeen Income

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aberdeen Income position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aberdeen Income will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Aberdeen Fund

  0.74KF Korea ClosedPairCorr
  0.72MRK Merck Company Fiscal Year End 6th of February 2025 PairCorr
  0.65KO Coca Cola Fiscal Year End 11th of February 2025 PairCorr
  0.62JNJ Johnson Johnson Fiscal Year End 28th of January 2025 PairCorr
  0.61PFE Pfizer Inc Fiscal Year End 4th of February 2025 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aberdeen Income could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aberdeen Income when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aberdeen Income - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aberdeen Income Credit to buy it.
The correlation of Aberdeen Income is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aberdeen Income moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aberdeen Income Credit moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aberdeen Income can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Aberdeen Fund

Aberdeen Income financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aberdeen Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aberdeen with respect to the benefits of owning Aberdeen Income security.
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments