Arch Capital Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ACGL Stock | USD 100.74 0.33 0.33% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arch Capital Group on the next trading day is expected to be 100.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.02. Arch Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Arch Capital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Arch Capital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Arch Capital fundamentals over time.
Arch |
Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 Arch Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arch Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Arch Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Arch Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arch Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Arch Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arch Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arch. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Arch Capital Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arch Capital Group on the next trading day is expected to be 100.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39, mean absolute percentage error of 4.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arch Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arch Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arch Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arch Capital | Arch Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arch Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arch Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arch Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 99.16 and 102.79, respectively. We have considered Arch Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arch Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arch Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.347 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3902 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0137 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 82.0209 |
Predictive Modules for Arch Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arch Capital Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Arch Capital
For every potential investor in Arch, whether a beginner or expert, Arch Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arch Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arch. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arch Capital's price trends.Arch Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arch Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arch Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arch Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arch Capital Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arch Capital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arch Capital's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arch Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arch Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arch Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arch Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arch Capital Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arch Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arch Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arch Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arch stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arch Capital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Capital. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.362 | Earnings Share 14.9 | Revenue Per Share 45.387 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.418 | Return On Assets 0.0486 |
The market value of Arch Capital Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.