Arch Resources Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| ACCA Stock | 130.85 0.00 0.00% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Arch Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 123.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 336.66. Arch Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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Arch Resources Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Arch Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 123.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.52, mean absolute percentage error of 44.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 336.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arch Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arch Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arch Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arch Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arch Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.9112 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.5191 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0388 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 336.6628 |
Predictive Modules for Arch Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arch Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arch Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arch Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arch Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arch Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arch Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arch Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arch Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arch Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arch Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 130.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 130.85 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 24.09 |
Arch Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arch Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arch Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arch stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Variance | 8.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Arch Stock Analysis
When running Arch Resources' price analysis, check to measure Arch Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arch Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Arch Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arch Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arch Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arch Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.