Yuan High Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

5474 Stock  TWD 154.00  0.50  0.32%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Yuan High Tech Development on the next trading day is expected to be 152.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 186.00. Yuan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Yuan High Tech Development is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Yuan High 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Yuan High Tech Development on the next trading day is expected to be 152.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.21, mean absolute percentage error of 17.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 186.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Yuan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Yuan High's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Yuan High Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Yuan HighYuan High Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Yuan High Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Yuan High's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Yuan High's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 150.45 and 155.05, respectively. We have considered Yuan High's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
154.00
150.45
Downside
152.75
Expected Value
155.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Yuan High stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Yuan High stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4797
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4397
MADMean absolute deviation3.2069
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.02
SAESum of the absolute errors186.0
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Yuan High. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Yuan High Tech Development and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Yuan High

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yuan High Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
151.72154.00156.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
130.65132.93169.40
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Yuan High

For every potential investor in Yuan, whether a beginner or expert, Yuan High's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Yuan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Yuan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Yuan High's price trends.

Yuan High Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Yuan High stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Yuan High could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Yuan High by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Yuan High Tech Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Yuan High's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Yuan High's current price.

Yuan High Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Yuan High stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Yuan High shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Yuan High stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Yuan High Tech Development entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Yuan High Risk Indicators

The analysis of Yuan High's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Yuan High's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting yuan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Yuan High

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Yuan High position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Yuan High will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Yuan Stock

  0.624966 Parade TechnologiesPairCorr

Moving against Yuan Stock

  0.722603 Evergreen Marine CorpPairCorr
  0.642609 Yang Ming MarinePairCorr
  0.576669 Wiwynn CorpPairCorr
  0.473533 LotesPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Yuan High could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Yuan High when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Yuan High - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Yuan High Tech Development to buy it.
The correlation of Yuan High is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Yuan High moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Yuan High Tech moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Yuan High can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Yuan Stock Analysis

When running Yuan High's price analysis, check to measure Yuan High's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Yuan High is operating at the current time. Most of Yuan High's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Yuan High's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Yuan High's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Yuan High to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.