China Airlines Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

2610 Stock  TWD 26.50  0.45  1.67%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 26.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.12. China Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for China Airlines works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

China Airlines Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 26.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Airlines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

China Airlines Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest China AirlinesChina Airlines Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

China Airlines Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting China Airlines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Airlines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.13 and 28.13, respectively. We have considered China Airlines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.50
26.63
Expected Value
28.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Airlines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Airlines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0024
MADMean absolute deviation0.2186
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0095
SAESum of the absolute errors13.1184
When China Airlines prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any China Airlines trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent China Airlines observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for China Airlines

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.0026.5028.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.8529.6531.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.3422.8826.41
Details

Other Forecasting Options for China Airlines

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Airlines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Airlines' price trends.

China Airlines Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Airlines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Airlines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Airlines Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Airlines' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Airlines' current price.

China Airlines Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Airlines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Airlines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Airlines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Airlines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

China Airlines Risk Indicators

The analysis of China Airlines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Airlines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for China Stock Analysis

When running China Airlines' price analysis, check to measure China Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of China Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.