Heartland Financial Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

1H4 Stock  EUR 62.50  0.00  0.00%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heartland Financial USA on the next trading day is expected to be 62.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.88. Heartland Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Heartland Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Heartland Financial - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Heartland Financial prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Heartland Financial price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Heartland Financial USA.

Heartland Financial Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heartland Financial USA on the next trading day is expected to be 62.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 2.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.88.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Heartland Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Heartland Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Heartland Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Heartland Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Heartland Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1679
MADMean absolute deviation0.981
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.016
SAESum of the absolute errors57.8819
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Heartland Financial observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Heartland Financial USA observations.

Predictive Modules for Heartland Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heartland Financial USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
60.6262.5064.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
52.1153.9968.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
56.9361.7566.57
Details

Heartland Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Heartland Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Heartland Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heartland Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Heartland Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Heartland Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Heartland Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Heartland Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Heartland Financial USA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Heartland Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Heartland Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Heartland Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting heartland stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Heartland Stock

Heartland Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Heartland Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Heartland with respect to the benefits of owning Heartland Financial security.