UBS 100 Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

UBS 100 polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for UBS 100 Index Fund as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

UBS 100 Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of UBS 100 Index Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 144.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28, mean absolute percentage error of 2.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.92.

UBS 100 Fund Forecast Pattern

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UBS 100 fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UBS 100 fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the UBS 100 historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a₀ + a₁*X + a₂*X² + a₃*X³ + ... + a_m*X^m

Predictive Modules for UBS 100

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UBS 100 Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

UBS 100 Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

UBS 100 Market Strength Events

UBS 100 Risk Indicators

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.