Catalent Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| 0C8 Stock | EUR 59.93 0.00 0.00% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Catalent on the next trading day is expected to be 60.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.01. Catalent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Catalent's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Catalent |
Catalent Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Catalent on the next trading day is expected to be 60.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Catalent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Catalent's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Catalent Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Catalent stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Catalent stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0341 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3392 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.006 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.01 |
Predictive Modules for Catalent
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalent. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Catalent Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Catalent stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Catalent could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Catalent by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Catalent Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Catalent stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Catalent shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Catalent stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Catalent entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Catalent Risk Indicators
The analysis of Catalent's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Catalent's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting catalent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5823 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3543 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8553 | |||
| Variance | 0.7315 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3651 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1255 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Catalent Stock
When determining whether Catalent is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Catalent Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Catalent Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Catalent Stock:Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.